Avancerad sökning

Hittade 4 avhandlingar som matchar ovanstående sökkriterier.

  1. 1. Electoral Incentives and Information Content in Macroeconomic Forecasts

    Författare :André Reslow; Mikael Carlsson; Jesper Lindé; Gisle James Natvik; Uppsala universitet; []
    Nyckelord :SAMHÄLLSVETENSKAP; SOCIAL SCIENCES; Brexit; Electoral Cycles; Forecast Evaluation; Forecasting; Imperfect Information; Interest Groups; Political Selection; Voting; Economics; Nationalekonomi;

    Sammanfattning : Essay I (with Davide Cipullo): This essay introduces macroeconomic forecasters as new political agents and suggests that they use their forecasts to influence voting outcomes. The essay develops a probabilistic voting model in which voters do not have complete information about the future economy and rely on professional forecasters when forming beliefs. LÄS MER

  3. 2. Empirical Studies in Consumption, House Prices and the Accuracy of European Growth and Inflation Forecasts

    Författare :Bharat Barot; Bengt Turner; Thomas Lindh; Robert Campbell; Uppsala universitet; []
    Nyckelord :SAMHÄLLSVETENSKAP; SOCIAL SCIENCES; Business and economics; consumption; house prices; housing investment; error correction method; forecasting accuracy; Ekonomi; Business and economics; Ekonomi; nationalekonomi; Economics;

    Sammanfattning : This thesis consists of four essays: Essay 1: The Role of Wealth in the Aggregated Consumption Function using an Error Correction Approach: Swedish Evidence from the years 1970 - 1993, an aggregated consumption function based on the life cycle hypothesis using the error correction methodology is estimated for Sweden. Aggregate wealth is spilt into net financial and housing wealth. LÄS MER

  4. 3. Essays on forecasting and Bayesian model averaging

    Författare :Jana Eklund; Handelshögskolan i Stockholm; []
    Nyckelord :NATURVETENSKAP; NATURAL SCIENCES;

    Sammanfattning : This thesis, which consists of four chapters, focuses on forecasting in a data-rich environment and related computational issues. Chapter 1, “An embarrassment of riches: Forecasting using large panels” explores the idea of combining forecasts from various indicator models by using Bayesian model averaging (BMA) and compares the predictive performance of BMA with predictive performance of factor models. LÄS MER

  5. 4. Political Careers, Government Stability, and Electoral Cycles

    Författare :Davide Cipullo; Eva Mörk; Luca Repetto; Vincent Pons; Uppsala universitet; []
    Nyckelord :SAMHÄLLSVETENSKAP; SOCIAL SCIENCES; Gender gaps; Self-selection; Political careers; Sticky floor; Voting; Government stability; Fragmentation; No-confidence votes; Bargaining; Brexit; Interest Groups; Forecaster behavior; Electoral cycles; Political selection; Macroeconomic forecasting;

    Sammanfattning : Essay 1: This essay investigates the impact of voter support on the representation of women in the political profession. The empirical analysis exploits two-stage elections in the United States and Italy to hold the selection of candidates constant. LÄS MER