Sökning: "Forecast Evaluation"

Visar resultat 1 - 5 av 25 avhandlingar innehållade orden Forecast Evaluation.

  1. 1. Learning local predictive accuracy for expert evaluation and forecast combination

    Författare :Oscar Oelrich; Mattias Villani; Francesco Ravazzolo; Stockholms universitet; []
    Nyckelord :NATURVETENSKAP; NATURAL SCIENCES; Bayesian; forecast combination; predictive density; Gaussian process; bootstrap; Bayes factors; model selection; Bayesian predictive synthesis; nonparametric methods; power transformation; expected log predictive density; variable selection; statistik; Statistics;

    Sammanfattning : This thesis consists of four papers that study several topics related to expert evaluation and aggregation. Paper I explores the properties of Bayes factors. Bayes factors, which are used for Bayesian hypothesis testing as well as to aggregate models using Bayesian model averaging, are sometimes observed to behave erratically. LÄS MER

  3. 2. Software Defect Prediction Techniques in Automotive Domain: Evaluation, Selection and Adoption

    Författare :Rakesh Rana; Göteborgs universitet; []
    Nyckelord :TEKNIK OCH TEKNOLOGIER; ENGINEERING AND TECHNOLOGY; TEKNIK OCH TEKNOLOGIER; ENGINEERING AND TECHNOLOGY; Software Defect Prediction; Automotive; Evaluation; Test Resource Allocation; Release Readiness;

    Sammanfattning : Software is becoming an increasingly important part of automotive product development. While software in automotive domain enables important functionality and innovations, it also requires significant effort for its verification & validation to meet the demands of safety, high quality and reliability. LÄS MER

  4. 3. Evaluation of forecasting techniques and forecast errors : with focus on intermittent demand

    Författare :Peter Wallström; Luleå tekniska universitet; []
    Nyckelord :TEKNIK OCH TEKNOLOGIER; ENGINEERING AND TECHNOLOGY; Industriell logistik; Industrial Logistics;

    Sammanfattning : To decide in advance the amount of resources that is required next week or next month can be both a complicated and hazardous task depending on the situation, despite the known time frame when the resources are needed. Intermittent demand, or slow-moving demand, that is when there are time periods without demand and then suddenly a time period with demand, becomes even more difficult to forecast. LÄS MER

  5. 4. A generic security evaluation method for open distributed systems

    Författare :Ann Frisinger; KTH; []
    Nyckelord :information security; security evaluation; risk analysis; method; ipen distributed system; virtual system; networked education; X-ify; NED-ify;

    Sammanfattning : Security is an important attribute of any informationsystem. Whether your business is small or large you have to beable to set the desired security levels for your system. Anon-decided or non-fulfilled security level target can easilyend up in unplanned costs. LÄS MER

  7. 5. Electoral Incentives and Information Content in Macroeconomic Forecasts

    Författare :André Reslow; Mikael Carlsson; Jesper Lindé; Gisle James Natvik; Uppsala universitet; []
    Nyckelord :SAMHÄLLSVETENSKAP; SOCIAL SCIENCES; Brexit; Electoral Cycles; Forecast Evaluation; Forecasting; Imperfect Information; Interest Groups; Political Selection; Voting; Economics; Nationalekonomi;

    Sammanfattning : Essay I (with Davide Cipullo): This essay introduces macroeconomic forecasters as new political agents and suggests that they use their forecasts to influence voting outcomes. The essay develops a probabilistic voting model in which voters do not have complete information about the future economy and rely on professional forecasters when forming beliefs. LÄS MER