Modelling water and solute flows at land-sea and land-atmosphere interfaces under data limitations

Sammanfattning: Water and vapour flows from land to sea and the atmosphere are important for water resources, coastal ecosystems and climate. This thesis investigates possible methods for modelling these flows under often encountered unmonitored hydrological conditions and data limitations. Two contrasting types of drainage basin and associated data limitation/availability cases are considered: the Swedish unmonitored near-coastal catchment areas Forsmark and Simpevarp, for which detailed spatial but not much temporal variability data is available; and the much larger Aral Sea Drainage Basin (ASDB), for which spatial hydrological information is limited, while there is relatively well-known temporal change occurring in the Aral Sea itself and in the land and water use of the region over the last 50 years.The hydrologic modelling for the Forsmark and Simpevarp catchment areas showed that the relatively large focused stream flows, and the mean values and total sums of the diffuse small stream-groundwater flow fields in between the large stream flows from land to sea are largely constrained by the catchment hydrological balances and relatively robust and certain to estimate. The ASDB hydrologic modelling indicated an evapotranspiration return flow to the atmosphere from the irrigation water input on irrigated land that is much higher than previous estimates in atmospheric modelling, implying possible considerably larger than previously estimated non-local water and climate effects of the world’s irrigated areas. The more detailed groundwater-seawater dynamics modelling carried out for the coastal parts of the ASDB showed that regional topography and bathymetry largely influence coastal water fluxes during sea level lowering, with the Aral Sea shrinkage decreasing the seawater intrusion risk into the coastal groundwater considerably more for steeper than for flatter coastal topography parts of the region.