Sharing the doughnut : Exploring sustainable and just futures

Sammanfattning: Despite decades of international discussions or summits on the need to radically reduce e.g. increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases (GHGs) or biodiversity loss, these are still rising. While these negative environmental trends continue, it is important to discuss alternative futures in an attempt to redirect society on a more sustainable and just path.The overall aim of the thesis is to develop images of the future and explore what sustainable and just futures might look like. The current environmental impact of Swedish consumption, both in Sweden and abroad, is shown using eight indicators of environmental pressures and resource use – illustrating where in the world the pressures or resource use occur and for which product groups. This gives us a starting point as to where we are today regarding some of the environmental challenges facing Sweden.Alternative futures that can challenge existing unsustainable trends are explored using four images of the future – so-called backcasting or long-term transformative scenarios. All of these need to fulfil two environmental and two social sustainability goals and do not rely on continued GDP growth.These images represent different strategies to reach the four selected goals.Such strategies may however have different consequences not just for these four specific goals but also for other sustainability issues and may have different implications for various groups in society. Therefore, they need to be evaluated accordingly. Existing methods to evaluate future scenarios regarding sustainability aspects are discussed in this thesis as well as the need to develop new methods to encompass all issues.A combination of methods and data is used to evaluate what it would actually mean if the scenarios were to fulfil a climate target for Swedish consumption in line with the 1.5°C. trajectory suggested as the target to strive for in the Paris Climate Agreement and in the latest IPCC report (IPCC, 2018) as regards reduction of goods consumption and altered consumption patterns in Sweden.This thesis stresses the need to clarify the assumptions made when formulating goals such as whether a perspective on intergenerational (between different generations) and intragenerational justice (within the current generation) is considered. It also underlines the need to identify and discuss potential goal conflicts that necessarily occur when considering several sustainability goals, whether they can be avoided or require potential trade-offs. It highlights the importance of making the underlying values embedded in assessment methods more visible. The intention in revealing goal conflicts, contradictions or hidden values is not to reach consensus but to ensure that the decisions are informed and made in a transparent manner.Indeed, these considerations imply moving from a first and rather vague level of meaning of the concept of sustainability where everyone can agree on a definition but no concrete and practical guidance can be gained to a second level where conflicts arise and values differ.