Botniabanan - förväntningar i tid och rum på regional utveckling och resande

Sammanfattning: The aim of the thesis is twofold: to analyze the effects of the expectations on the Bothnia Line on the housing market and expectations on railway use. To fulfill these aims, three questions are considered:1. To what extent is property prices influenced by the expected effects of the Bothnia Line?2. Are there differences in expectations on regional development and future journeys between residents in different locations and with different individual characteristics?3. How are trips to work affected by the expectations on the Bothnia Line and the performance of the train service according to residents in different locations?Property prices are investigated quantitatively with data delivered from Lantmäteriet. The data contains every sold property from 1994 to 2001 in the municipalities of Umeå, Nordmaling, and Örnsköldsvik. Expectations on regional development and future traveling on the Bothnia Line were investigated with two questionnaires conducted in the autumn of 2002.The empirical results from the study of property prices are clear. There are no signs of influence from the Bothnia Line on the property prices close to the railway stations or in the proximity of the railway.The empirical results from the questionnaires reveal a mixed picture of the expectations. In the municipalities located furthest away from the railway, the expectations are low. On the contrary, a large proportion (>75 %) of the residents in municipalities along the railway line believe it can be useful for the population in general when searching for new employment opportunities. This is especially true for males living in Örnsköldsvik. A significantly smaller proportion (?25 %) believes they will use the railway themselves.One explanation to the geographic variations is that they are a result from an ongoing diffusion process. Residents in Örnsköldsvik were the first ones to have a visual image of the railway since the construction started there. As the construction continues, the expectations might increase in other locations as well. Another possibility is that people only react on word of mouth from someone that actually made a trip before they consider changing the mode of transport. If that is the case, the expectations will increase only after the opening of the railway line.With the exception of residents in Nordmaling, expectations on future journeys with the Bothnia Line are low. The low expectations on journeys on the Bothnia Line might be explained by the lack of attraction between the places along the line. They are satisfied with their present situation and cannot find any rationale to consider other alternatives. It is a different story if they are forced to consider other alternatives. The result from a stated preference study shows that if they are offered employment at another place, the majority is willing to commute.