A contribution to population dynamics in space

Detta är en avhandling från Umeå : Umeå universitet

Sammanfattning: Population models are very often used and considered useful in the policy-making process and for planning purposes. In this research I have tried to illuminate the problem of analysing population evolution in space by using three models which cover a wide spectrum of complementary methodologies:a The Hotell.ing-Puu modelb A multiregional demographic modelc A synergetic modelHotelling's work and Puu's later generalization have produced theoretical continuous models treating population growth and dispersal in a combined logistic growth and diffusion equation. The multiregional model is a discrete model based on the Markovian assumption which simulates the population evolution disaggregated by age and region. It is further assumed that this population is governed by a given pattern of growth and interregional mobility. The synergetic model is also a discrete model based on the Markovian assumption incorporating a probabilistic framework with causal structure. The quantitative description of the population dynamics is treated in terms of trend parameters, which are correlated in turn with demo-economic factors.