Union-Fertility Nexus and Fertility Variation in Sub-Saharan Africa : The Role of Marital Dissolution and Repartnering

Sammanfattning: The role of marital dissolution and repartnering in shaping fertility patterns in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) has been largely overlooked, even though marital dissolution and repartnering are fundamental features of marriage dynamics in this region. This dissertation addresses this gap by using existing statistical and demographic techniques and developing new demographic methods to (i) examine the relationship between union dissolution and fertility at the micro level (Study I); (ii) assess the dynamics of union dissolution, including the levels of all-cause first union dissolution, the timing of first union dissolution, and the reproductive years spent outside of marriage due to union dissolution (Studies II & III); and (iii) analyze the influence of marital dissolution and repartnering on macro fertility patterns in SSA (Study IV). The analyses are mainly based on Demographic Health Survey data collected in 34 SSA countries since 1986. The findings show that marital dissolution is associated with reduced fertility at both the individual and the population level, and remarriage does not fully compensate for lost fertility at the individual level. The assessment of the dynamics of union dissolution indicates that union dissolution is common, it typically occurs at relatively early reproductive ages, and the number of reproductive years lost due to union dissolution is minimal. Furthermore, this dissertation documents that cross-country differences in union dissolution and repartnering rates account for 9.4% of cross-country fertility differences in SSA. In addition, the results show that changes in marital dissolution and repartnering rates and the fertility behaviour of women who experience these events mostly contributed to the slow pace of fertility decline in this region. For the SSA region (as a whole), fertility would have declined 1.24 times faster in the absence of such changes. These findings demonstrate that marital dissolution and repartnering are important drivers of fertility variation in SSA, and thus highlight the value of integrating these dynamics into the discourse on the union-fertility nexus and fertility variation in SSA and beyond.