Welfare, Security and the Level of Fertility: A Global Analysis, 1985 and 1995

Sammanfattning: Aims: This study aims to find an explanation for differentials in the level of fertility through the analysis of the recent data of seventy-eight developed and developing countries. The main approach adopted is the specification of a macroeconomic interdependent model testing hypotheses within an institutional point of view. Methods: This is a cross-sectional data analysis in a system of four equations in which fertility, the dependent variable, is a function of three proximate determinants, i.e. average age at first marriage, contraceptive prevalence and breastfeeding. Each proximate determinant is the function of a group of socio-economic variables, which are the proxy variables for welfare and security, and indicators of gender inequalities. The approach follows the general assumptions of recursive models, similar to that of the standard Easterlin-Crimmins theory, which unifies the economic and sociological theories of fertility. For the estimation of the model the iterated generalised method of moments (ITGMM) is applied, an appropriate method of estimation producing heteroscedastic consistent and significant regression coefficients. Results: The empirical results show that education and socio-demographic indicators of security for women are important factors, and support the theory which states that welfare and security, as important facets of socio- economic development, are strongly associated with the contemporary low fertility. The results suggest that even if particular cases have shown declines in fertility in the absence of the 'westernisation' effect, the general pattern is that fertility transition needs a certain level of development as a backcloth. Conclusions: These results show the link between decreasing inequalities and fertility decision-making as emphasised in the institutional approach, and point to the necessity of women receiving their due share of the benefits of socio-economic development as a precondition to achieving low levels of fertility.