Modelling macroeconomic time series with smooth transition autoregressions

Sammanfattning: Among the parametric nonlinear time series model families, the smooth transition regression (STR) model has recently received attention in the literature. The considerations in this dissertation focus on the univariate special case of this model, the smooth transition autoregression (STAR) model, although large parts of the discussion can be easily generalised to the more general STR case. Many nonlinear univariate time series models can be described as consisting of a number of regimes, each one corresponding to a linear autoregressive parametrisation, between which the process switches. In the STAR models, as opposed to certain other popular models involving multiple regimes, the transition between the extreme regimes is smooth and assumed to be characterised by a bounded continuous function of a transition variable. The transition variable, in turn, may be a lagged value of the variable in the model, or another stochastic or deterministic observable variable. A number of other commonly discussed nonlinear autoregressive models can be viewed as special or limiting cases of the STAR model. The applications presented in the first two chapters of this dissertation, Chapter I: Another look at Swedish Business Cycles, 1861-1988 Chapter II: Modelling asymmetries and moving equilibria in unemployment rates, make use of STAR models. In these two studies, STAR models are used to provide insight into dynamic properties of the time series which cannot be be properly characterised by linear time series models, and which thereby may be obscured by estimating only a linear model in cases where linearity would be rejected if tested. The applications being of interest in their own right, an important common objective of these two chapters is also to develop, suggest, and give examples of various methods that may be of use in discussing the dynamic properties of estimated STAR models in general.Chapter III, Testing linearity against smooth transition autoregression using a parametric bootstrap, reports the result of a small simulation study considering a new test of linearity against STAR based on bootstrap methodology.