Sökning: "overconfidence"
Visar resultat 1 - 5 av 18 avhandlingar innehållade ordet overconfidence.
1. A naïve sampling model of intuitive confidence intervals
Sammanfattning : A particular field in research on judgment and decision making (JDM) is concerned with realism of confidence in one’s knowledge. An interesting finding is the so-called format dependence effect, which implies that assessment of the same probability distribution generates different conclusions about over- or underconfidence depending on the assessment format. LÄS MER
2. Aeronautical decision-making in context: Influence of affect and experience on procedure violations
Sammanfattning : Although pilots are well trained and there are rules, models and standard operating procedures to use in decision-making situations, aviation accidents do occur. One reason why accidents may occur is because pilots sometimes decide to violate, or deviate from standard operating procedures. LÄS MER
3. The Black-Litterman Model : Towards its use in practice
Sammanfattning : The Black-Litterman model is analyzed in three steps seeking to investigate, develop and test the B-L model in an applied perspective. The first step mathematically derives the Black-Litterman model from a sampling theory approach generating a new interpretation of the model and an interpretable formula for the parameter weight-on-views. LÄS MER
4. Overconfidence and Format Dependence in Subjective Probability Intervals: Naive Estimation and Constrained Sampling
Sammanfattning : A particular field in research on judgment and decision making (JDM) is concerned with realism of confidence in one’s knowledge. An interesting finding is the so-called format dependence effect which implies that assessment of the same probability distribution generates different conclusions about over- or underconfidence bias depending on the assessment format. LÄS MER
5. Biased beliefs and heterogeneous preferences : essays in behavioral economics
Sammanfattning : This dissertation is a collection of essays (chapters) on behavioral economics. Behavioral economics—arguably one of the most influential innovations in economics over the last 20 years—is a research paradigm introducing psychologically more realistic assumptions into economics. LÄS MER