Sökning: "prediction uncertainty"

Visar resultat 11 - 15 av 160 avhandlingar innehållade orden prediction uncertainty.

1. 11. On Risk Prediction

   Författare :Carl Lönnbark; Kurt Brännäs; Stefan Mittnik; Umeå universitet; []
   Nyckelord :SAMHÄLLSVETENSKAP; SOCIAL SCIENCES; Finance; Time series; GARCH; Estimation error; Asymmetry; Supply and demand; Econometrics; Ekonometri; ekonometri; Econometrics;

   Sammanfattning : This thesis comprises four papers concerning risk prediction. Paper [I] suggests a nonlinear and multivariate time series model framework that enables the study of simultaneity in returns and in volatilities, as well as asymmetric effects arising from shocks. LÄS MER

3. 12. Channel Prediction and Target Tracking for Multi-Agent Systems

   Författare :Markus Fröhle; Chalmers tekniska högskola; []
   Nyckelord :TEKNIK OCH TEKNOLOGIER; ENGINEERING AND TECHNOLOGY; TEKNIK OCH TEKNOLOGIER; ENGINEERING AND TECHNOLOGY; TEKNIK OCH TEKNOLOGIER; ENGINEERING AND TECHNOLOGY; Gaussian processes; multitarget tracking; channel prediction; extended target tracking; Multi-agent system; posterior fusion; location uncertainty;

   Sammanfattning : Mobile moving agents as part of a multi-agent system (MAS) utilize the wireless communication channel to disseminate information and to coordinate between each other. This channel is error-prone and the transmission quality depends on the environment as well as on the configuration of the transmitter and the receiver. LÄS MER

4. 13. Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analysis of Boiling Water Reactor Stability Simulations

   Författare :Ivan Gajev; Weimin Ma; Tomasz Kozlowski; Kostadin Ivanov; KTH; []
   Nyckelord :TEKNIK OCH TEKNOLOGIER; ENGINEERING AND TECHNOLOGY; BWR Stability; Sensitivity; Uncertainty; SRA - Energy; SRA - Energi;

   Sammanfattning : The best estimate codes are used for licensing of Nuclear Power Plants (NPP), but with conservative assumptions. It is claimed that the uncertainties are covered by the conservatism of the calculation. LÄS MER

5. 14. Interpretable Battery Lifetime Prediction Using Early Degradation Data

   Författare :Huang Zhang; Chalmers tekniska högskola; []
   Nyckelord :NATURVETENSKAP; NATURAL SCIENCES; NATURVETENSKAP; NATURAL SCIENCES; NATURVETENSKAP; NATURAL SCIENCES; interpretable machine learning; uncertainty quantification; lithium-ion battery; lifetime early prediction; capacity knee;

   Sammanfattning : Battery lifetime prediction using early degradation data is crucial for optimizing the lifecycle management of batteries from cradle to grave, one example is the management of an increasing number of batteries at the end of their first lives at lower economic and technical risk. In this thesis, we first introduce quantile regression forests (QRF) model to provide both cycle life point prediction and range prediction with uncertainty quantified as the width of the prediction interval. LÄS MER

7. 15. Uncertainty Modelling in Hydrological Applications - Error Propagation Properties of Random Linear Systems

   Författare :Jan Agerholm Høybye; Avdelningen för Teknisk vattenresurslära; []
   Nyckelord :TEKNIK OCH TEKNOLOGIER; ENGINEERING AND TECHNOLOGY; geographical and geological engineering; Hydrogeology; floods; water quality; prediction uncertainty; differential equations; Stochastic hydrology; random functions; Hydrogeologi; teknisk geologi; teknisk geografi; Geophysics; physical oceanography; meteorology; Geofysik; fysisk oceanografi; meteorologi;

   Sammanfattning : In hydrological models for water resources management and planning, the model output or design quantities are functions of the input data and a number of parameters that are essentially stochastic processes or random variables. The task of uncertainty analysis is to estimate the uncertainty characteristics of the model output in terms of the uncertainties in the input, model parameters and initial conditions. LÄS MER