Sökning: "Overconfidence"

Visar resultat 1 - 5 av 18 avhandlingar innehållade ordet Overconfidence.

  1. 1. A naïve sampling model of intuitive confidence intervals

    Författare :Patrik Hansson; Peter Juslin; Ralph Hertwig; Umeå universitet; []
    Nyckelord :SAMHÄLLSVETENSKAP; SOCIAL SCIENCES; overconfidence; subjective probability; sampling model; short-term memory; age-differences.; Psychology; Psykologi;

    Sammanfattning : A particular field in research on judgment and decision making (JDM) is concerned with realism of confidence in one’s knowledge. An interesting finding is the so-called format dependence effect, which implies that assessment of the same probability distribution generates different conclusions about over- or underconfidence depending on the assessment format. LÄS MER

  3. 2. Aeronautical decision-making in context: Influence of affect and experience on procedure violations

    Författare :Johan Lindvall; Göteborgs universitet; []
    Nyckelord :SAMHÄLLSVETENSKAP; SOCIAL SCIENCES; Aviation; Decision-making; Violations; Non-technical skills; Experience; Affect; Overconfidence;

    Sammanfattning : Although pilots are well trained and there are rules, models and standard operating procedures to use in decision-making situations, aviation accidents do occur. One reason why accidents may occur is because pilots sometimes decide to violate, or deviate from standard operating procedures. LÄS MER

  4. 3. The Black-Litterman Model : Towards its use in practice

    Författare :Charlotta Mankert; Birger Ljung; Harald Lang; Stefan Sjögren; KTH; []
    Nyckelord :SAMHÄLLSVETENSKAP; SOCIAL SCIENCES; Black-Litterman model; portfolio theory; portfolio management; practical portfolio management; asset allocation; sampling theory; behavioural finance; behavioral finance; overconfidence; action science; action research; Business studies; Företagsekonomi;

    Sammanfattning : The Black-Litterman model is analyzed in three steps seeking to investigate, develop and test the B-L model in an applied perspective. The first step mathematically derives the Black-Litterman model from a sampling theory approach generating a new interpretation of the model and an interpretable formula for the parameter weight-on-views. LÄS MER

  5. 4. Overconfidence and Format Dependence in Subjective Probability Intervals: Naive Estimation and Constrained Sampling

    Författare :Patrik Hansson; Peter Juslin; Carl Martin Allwood; Umeå universitet; []
    Nyckelord :SAMHÄLLSVETENSKAP; SOCIAL SCIENCES; Psychology; Psykologi; Psychology; psykologi;

    Sammanfattning : A particular field in research on judgment and decision making (JDM) is concerned with realism of confidence in one’s knowledge. An interesting finding is the so-called format dependence effect which implies that assessment of the same probability distribution generates different conclusions about over- or underconfidence bias depending on the assessment format. LÄS MER

  7. 5. Biased beliefs and heterogeneous preferences : essays in behavioral economics

    Författare :Karen Khachatryan; Handelshögskolan i Stockholm; []
    Nyckelord :SAMHÄLLSVETENSKAP; SOCIAL SCIENCES;

    Sammanfattning : This dissertation is a collection of essays (chapters) on behavioral economics. Behavioral economics—arguably one of the most influential innovations in economics over the last 20 years—is a research paradigm introducing psychologically more realistic assumptions into economics. LÄS MER