Sökning: "Forecasting methods"

Visar resultat 21 - 25 av 85 avhandlingar innehållade orden Forecasting methods.

  1. 21. Climate and dengue fever : early warning based on temperature and rainfall

    Författare :Yien Ling Hii; Nawi Ng; Joacim Rocklöv; Rainer Sauerborn; Sven Britton; Umeå universitet; []
    Nyckelord :MEDICIN OCH HÄLSOVETENSKAP; MEDICAL AND HEALTH SCIENCES; dengue fever; temperature; rainfall; forecasting model; early warning; epidemic; dengue risk index; folkhälsa; Public health;

    Sammanfattning : Background: Dengue is a viral infectious disease that is transmitted by mosquitoes. The disease causes a significant health burden in tropical countries, and has been a public health burden in Singapore for several decades. Severe complications such as hemorrhage can develop and lead to fatal outcomes. LÄS MER

  3. 22. The Heterogeneity of Behavior in Operations Processes : Empirical Evidence

    Författare :Neslihan Özlü; Fredrik Eng Larsson; Thomas Hartman; Olov Isaksson; Kai Hoberg; Stockholms universitet; []
    Nyckelord :SAMHÄLLSVETENSKAP; SOCIAL SCIENCES; behavioral operations; empirical operations; heterogeneity; experience effects; ordering decisions; choice models; judgmental forecasting; operations processes; Business Administration; företagsekonomi;

    Sammanfattning : Behavioral science research has established that observed human behavior may deviate considerably from model suggestions. In addition to the realization that there is no such thing as standardized human behavior, there are also substantial differences in how people deviate from the model: Different individuals make dissimilar decisions in the same situation when using the same information. LÄS MER

  4. 23. Learning local predictive accuracy for expert evaluation and forecast combination

    Författare :Oscar Oelrich; Mattias Villani; Francesco Ravazzolo; Stockholms universitet; []
    Nyckelord :NATURVETENSKAP; NATURAL SCIENCES; Bayesian; forecast combination; predictive density; Gaussian process; bootstrap; Bayes factors; model selection; Bayesian predictive synthesis; nonparametric methods; power transformation; expected log predictive density; variable selection; statistik; Statistics;

    Sammanfattning : This thesis consists of four papers that study several topics related to expert evaluation and aggregation. Paper I explores the properties of Bayes factors. Bayes factors, which are used for Bayesian hypothesis testing as well as to aggregate models using Bayesian model averaging, are sometimes observed to behave erratically. LÄS MER

  5. 24. Context-aware Human Motion Prediction for Robots in Complex Dynamic Environments

    Författare :Andrey Rudenko; Kai Arras; Achim Lilienthal; Thierry Fraichard; Örebro universitet; []
    Nyckelord :NATURVETENSKAP; NATURAL SCIENCES; robotics; human motion prediction; activity forecasting;

    Sammanfattning : Understanding human behavior is a key skill for intelligent systems that share physical and emotional spaces with humans. One of the main challenges to this end is the ability of such systems to make accurate predictions of human motion. LÄS MER

  7. 25. Spatiotemporal prediction of arbovirus outbreak risk : the role of weather and population mobility

    Författare :Aditya L. Ramadona; Joacim Rocklöv; Yesim Tozan; Hari Kusnanto; Lutfan Lazuardi; Paula Moraga; Umeå universitet; []
    Nyckelord :MEDICIN OCH HÄLSOVETENSKAP; MEDICAL AND HEALTH SCIENCES; arbovirus; dengue; temperature; rainfall; extreme weather; climate variability; population mobility; twitter data; social media; forecasting model; early warning; epidemic; big data; INLA; spatiotemporal model; climate services;

    Sammanfattning : Background: Arboviruses such as dengue and chikungunya have been a significant public health burden globally for several decades. In Indonesia, all four dengue serotypes are circulating. LÄS MER