Sökning: "Forecast combination"

Visar resultat 1 - 5 av 16 avhandlingar innehållade orden Forecast combination.

1. 1. Learning local predictive accuracy for expert evaluation and forecast combination

   Författare :Oscar Oelrich; Mattias Villani; Francesco Ravazzolo; Stockholms universitet; []
   Nyckelord :NATURVETENSKAP; NATURAL SCIENCES; Bayesian; forecast combination; predictive density; Gaussian process; bootstrap; Bayes factors; model selection; Bayesian predictive synthesis; nonparametric methods; power transformation; expected log predictive density; variable selection; statistik; Statistics;

   Sammanfattning : This thesis consists of four papers that study several topics related to expert evaluation and aggregation. Paper I explores the properties of Bayes factors. Bayes factors, which are used for Bayesian hypothesis testing as well as to aggregate models using Bayesian model averaging, are sometimes observed to behave erratically. LÄS MER

3. 2. Giant Oil Fields - The Highway to Oil : Giant Oil Fields and their Importance for Future Oil Production

   Författare :Fredrik Robelius; Kjell Aleklett; Robert Hirsch; Uppsala universitet; []
   Nyckelord :Engineering physics; giant oil fields; URR; future oil production; peak oil; forecast; Teknisk fysik;

   Sammanfattning : Since the 1950s, oil has been the dominant source of energy in the world. The cheap supply of oil has been the engine for economic growth in the western world. Since future oil demand is expected to increase, the question to what extent future production will be available is important. LÄS MER

4. 3. Essays on forecasting and Bayesian model averaging

   Författare :Jana Eklund; Handelshögskolan i Stockholm; []
   Nyckelord :NATURVETENSKAP; NATURAL SCIENCES;

   Sammanfattning : This thesis, which consists of four chapters, focuses on forecasting in a data-rich environment and related computational issues. Chapter 1, “An embarrassment of riches: Forecasting using large panels” explores the idea of combining forecasts from various indicator models by using Bayesian model averaging (BMA) and compares the predictive performance of BMA with predictive performance of factor models. LÄS MER

5. 4. Optimal weather routing using ensemble weather forecasts

   Författare :Lukas Skoglund; Jakob Kuttenkeuler; Anders Rosén; Wengang Mao; KTH; []
   Nyckelord :TEKNIK OCH TEKNOLOGIER; ENGINEERING AND TECHNOLOGY; route optimization; ensemble weather forecasts;

   Sammanfattning : Ships small and large all battle the elements when crossing the worlds oceans.  As such, ships are designed to operate in situations with high speed winds and heavy waves.  There are however limits to what any ship can handle safely and it is thus important to avoid the worst weather systems as much as possible. LÄS MER

7. 5. Low energy buildings equipped with heat pumps for high self-consumption of photovoltaic electricity

   Författare :Richard Thygesen; Björn Karlsson; Robert Öman; Joakim Widén; Mälardalens högskola; []
   Nyckelord :TEKNIK OCH TEKNOLOGIER; ENGINEERING AND TECHNOLOGY; Energy- and Environmental Engineering; energi- och miljöteknik;

   Sammanfattning : The building sector is a prioritized area in the European Unions (EU) ambition to reduce the total final energy use by 20 %; lower the emission of greenhouse gases by 20 % and using energy 20 % more efficient by 2020. The residential sector in the European Union accounts for 27% of the un-ion’s final energy use and the EU views decentralized energy generation and heat pumps as important measures in reducing the energy demand in the building sector. LÄS MER