Strategic Design of Multi-Actor Nascent Energy and Industrial Infrastructure Networks under Uncertainty

Sammanfattning: Infrastructure networks, such as gas transmission and distribution pipelines, electricity transmission and distribution cables, district heating networks and carbon capture and storage pipeline networks are vital infrastructures that form the backbone of our energy system. They transport commodities (i.e. gas, hot water, electricity) from one or several sources to one or several consumption/conversion sites through dedicated pipelines and cables. These infrastructure networks are undergoing major changes due to an increasing integration of renewable sources in the energy sector and increasing adoption of CO2 emission reduction measures by carbon intensive industries. For instance, the topology of the electricity network is undergoing changes to accommodate distributed power generation and the flexibility of consumers. Likewise, new pipeline infrastructures are being deployed for transporting CO2 from industrial sources to storage sites and greenhouses.This thesis focuses on the design of nascent energy and industrial infrastructure networks: networks that still needed to be built and for which neither scope, size, nor participants were certain. It develops systematic design analysis approaches to help improve design under uncertainty by means of flexibility. There are four parts to the thesis. The first part focuses on understanding the concept of flexible design and its application to the design of engineering systems and energy infrastructure networks. The second part focuses on flexibility analysis with the objective of improving their lifetime performance in the face of uncertain design requirements. A systematic engineering design approach combining graph theory network modelling, exploratory modelling and real options is proposed to explore candidate designs, identify valuable flexibility enablers and appreciate the value of flexible design strategies. The third part considers the role of risk sharing when actors co-invest in infrastructure networks under uncertain environment. Contractual arrangements are modelled between actors as a cooperative game and analyses the effects of uncertainty. The fourth part focuses on how private and public actors may enhance desired performances when developing new energy and industrial infrastructure networks under uncertainty.