Long-term prognostic and predictive factors in hormone receptor positive breast cancer

Sammanfattning: The breast cancer survival in Sweden is good (almost 90 % 5-year relative survival) and has increased over time. For women with hormone receptor negative tumors, most relapses occur within the first 5 years after diagnosis. Thereafter the recurrence risk decreases rapidly. For women with estrogen receptor positive (ER+) tumors the annual risk for late recurrences is 1 – 2 %, even after 5 years of endocrine therapy. This risk accumulates so that approximately 25 % of the patients that are recurrence-free after five years from diagnosis may experience a relapse within further 15 years of follow-up. The relatively high long-term risk calls for identification of prognostic and predictive markers with long-term effect. Though, the number of such markers with proven significance is limited. Of the clinical characteristics, only nodal status and to some extent tumor size and tumor grade have been shown to have long-term prognostic value. In this thesis, we propose long-term prognostic and predictive markers for breast cancer.In paper I, we suggest the protein v-akt murine thymoma viral oncogene homologue 2 (AKT2) as a long-term prognostic marker among patients with ER+ tumors. In our study, besides nodal status, AKT2 was the only factor with long-term prognostic value. This is in accordance with some other studies, though we also showed that the significance of AKT2 was limited to ER+ tumors and that the impact increased with higher ER expression.Approximately 75 – 85 % of the ER+ tumors are also progesterone receptor positive (PR+). ER+/progesterone receptor negative (PR-) tumors are considered to be more aggressive and patients with such tumors are often treated with chemotherapy. In this group, more specific subgroups for targeted therapy are needed.Whereas ER has long been established as a predictive factor regarding tamoxifen benefit, the role of PR has not been clarified to date. In paper II, we showed that PR status adds predictive value to ER considering the long-term benefit from tamoxifen.In paper III, we aimed to identify new prognostic markers among patients with ER+ tumors. Systemically untreated patients with ER+/PR- tumors and high expression of the Ras-related protein RAB6C (RAB6C) had reduced distant recurrence rate. Therefore, we suggest RAB6C as a candidate marker for subgroup division among patients with ER+/PR- tumors.According to the results from paper II, there might be subgroups of patients with ER+/PRtumors that do benefit from tamoxifen. The aim of paper IV was to identify such subgroups. Here, we suggest that patients with ER+/PR- tumors and low RAB6C expression do benefit from tamoxifen.The results from this thesis may encourage further studies for more specific subgroup divisions. Such studies may lead to changes in the management program, where some patients with ER+ tumors should receive prolonged or more intense treatment and others reduced treatment based on the pathological markers AKT2, PR and RAB6C.