Variance Expressions and Model Reduction in System Identification

Sammanfattning: Although system identification is now a mature research field, some problems remain unsolved. Examples of unsolved or partly unsolved problems are; accuracy of subspace identification algorithms, identification via model reduction, identification for control, and identification of non-linear systems. Some problems that fall into these categories are studied in this thesis.This thesis discusses variance expressions in system identification. In particular, variance expressions for reduced models are analyzed.The topic of model reduction via system identification has received little attention during the years. To understand how the variance of a high order model affects the reduced model, a general expression for the variance of the low order model as a function of the reduction method used is derived. This allows the analysis of all model reduction methods that can be written as a minimization criterion, where the function to be minimized is twice continuously differentiable. Many methods can be studied using this approach. However, the popular method of model reduction by balanced truncation of states does not immediately fit into this framework.Many unsolved problems in system identification may be studied with the use of bootstrap methods. This statistical tool, used to assess accuracy in estimation problems, may be adopted to a series of problems in system identification and signal processing. The thesis presents how bootstrap can be adopted in the prediction error framework. In addition, we demonstrate how bootstrap can be applied to problems of constructing condence regions with a simultaneous confidence degree and calculating the variance of undermodeled models.The thesis briefly discusses how set membership identification and prediction error identification can be combined into a more robust estimate. Finally, insights into how model validation can be performed in a more user informative way are also given.