Spatial Strategies for Biodiversity Conservation

Sammanfattning: Biodiversity is being lost under alarming rates due to an unsustainable socio-economic trajectory causing global change. Such loss is unequally spread over the Earth, and Southern Asia has been and is projected to continue to be one of the most affected regions. Mammalian species play a pivotal role in ecosystem regulation and their disturbance can trigger potential cascading effects. Thus I used several correlative and mechanistic models to increase knowledge on the response of the mammalian community in Southern Asia to global change (Aim 1). In Chapter 1, I found indications that closely related species of small wild cats (Prionailurus spp.) display species-specific responses to climate, land cover and human disturbance. Their habitat suitability is likely following different trends since deep-time. In Chapter 2, macro-scale spatially-explicit mechanistic simulations revealed that six species, including large and medium-sized carnivores and two medium-size herbivores, respond differently to past (1850) and projected future (2100) land-use changes. Some species are likely to benefit from future projected changes, while others may not be viable or see local populations going extinct. In Chapter 4 I also found a local heterogeneous response to forest loss in a community of 31 mammalian species within protected areas in Northeast India. Secondly, I explored the effectiveness of spatial conservation strategies under global change (Aim 2). In Chapter 1, I found low (<10%) and uneven coverage of suitable habitat by protected areas for Prionailurus spp in the Indian subcontinent. In Chapter 4 I found that protected areas reduce forest loss by approximately 20% in 56 protected areas of Northeast India. Finally, I aimed at incorporating ecological dynamics in assessments of global change effects on biodiversity (Aim 3). In Chapter 2 I was able to apply a spatially-explicit mechanistic simulation, including demographic and dispersal processes, to macroscale. I identify that dispersal may play a major role in the projections of some species' response to global change. Chapter 3 goes a step further and identifies that it is already possible to join fully mechanistic simulations of land-use and biodiversity, including bi-directional feedbacks. Such approaches promise the potential for a general mechanistic modeling framework to produce more accurate projections of biodiversity change.