Yrke, yrkesförändring och utslagning från arbetsmarknaden en studie av relationen mellan förtidspension och arbetsmarknadsförändring

Sammanfattning: The main objective of this thesis is to analyse if and to what extent changes in the labour market can be regarded as a factor influencing the risk of becoming a disabil­ity pensioner. Disability pension is a social security program operating in the nexus of work and welfare and is provided to people who, due to medical reasons, are limited in their work ability. The data material analysed consists of information about all individuals who received disability pension in 1988 (54 000) and 1993 (62 000) in Sweden. Samples fremi the non-pensioner population formed control- groups. The data collected covers mainly social and occupational background of the individuals.The first step in the analyses addressed the question of causes of disability pen­sion in general. This part showed that the causes must be seen in a multifactorial perspective. Individual, structural and institutional factors have significant impact on the relative risk of becoming a disability pensioner. An increased relative risk was associated with low educational background, immigration and broken marriages. However, the variables that had the strongest effect were age, health and position in the labour market i.e. social class and occupation. It became obvious that one im­portant mechanism explaining the impact of occupation was exposition of work environment conditions.The second step in the analyses focused on labour market change as a risk-factor. The results showed a negative correlation between employment change rates and disability pension. Individuals in occupations and industries with decreasing num­ber of emplyoees had an increased relative risk. It became clear that especially un­skilled workers and employees with a peripheral position were affected by this factor. This was especially true for women. The female labour market is to a large extent dependent on the public service sector and the reductions within this sector have resulted in an increased frequency of disability pensioning.To conclude, the study has shown that disability pension in Sweden is deeply embedded in the labour market and the occupational structure in Sweden. This can be explained both as a consequence of characteristics that accompany certain posi­tions at the labour market and as an effect of how the labour market develops.