Decisions with Medium to Long-Term Consequences Decision Processes and Structures

Sammanfattning: All of us make more or less important decisions during our entire lives, in private and professional arenas. Some decisions have consequences for an individual or organization in the short term, others have long lasting consequences. This thesis concerns studies of decision processes and structures involved indecision-making with medium to long-term consequences for an organization or individual. Study I and II focus decision-making theory and judgments in procurement. Study III concerns real-life, individual career decision-making. Study I used a laboratory context for an investigation of willingness to pay (WP) for the creation of a procurement offer. Study II investigated organizational decision processes and structures of procurement of large projects in a nuclear power plant organization. Study III investigated the decision process used to make a choice between two professional training programs leading to psychotherapist certification. Study I found, that participants used a multiplicative combination of probability and profit when judging WP for the creation of a bid. Scales of subjective probability had smaller ranges than objective probability. In this context, participants were more sensitive to variation in monetary value than to probability. In Study, II it was possible to describe the procurement process in a framework of information search and decision theory. A Multi Attribute Utility Theory-inspired model was used by the staff, in the evaluations of procurement alternatives. Both compensatory (e.g. negative aspects can be compensated by positive aspects) and non-compensatory (particular “pass” levels of attributes have to be exceeded for acceptance of a choice alternative) decision rules were used. In study III it was found that a development and extension of Differentiation and Consolidation theory described individual reasons pro and con alternatives before and after the choice of a professional training program.