Asset Liability Management for Tanzania Pension Funds
Sammanfattning: This thesis presents a long-term asset liability management for Tanzania pension funds. As an application, the largest pension fund in Tanzania is considered. This is a pay-as-you-go pension fund where the contributions are used to pay current beneﬁts. The Pension plan analyzed is a final salary deﬁned beneﬁt. Two kinds of pension beneﬁt are considered, a commuted (at retirement) and a monthly (old age) pension. A decision factor in the analysis is the increased life expectancy of the members of the pension fund.The presentation is divided into two parts. First is a long-term projection of the fund using a ﬁxed and relatively low return on asset value. Basing on the number of members in 2015, a 50 years projection of members and retirees is done. The corresponding amount of contributions, asset values, beneﬁt payouts, and liabilities are also projected. The evaluation of some possible reforms of the fund is done. Then, the growth of asset values using diﬀerent asset returns is studied. The projection shows that the fund will not be fully sustainable in a long future due to the increase in life expectancy of its members. The contributions will not cover the beneﬁt payouts and the asset value will not fully cover liabilities. Evaluation of some reforms of the fund shows that they cannot guarantee a long-term sustainability. Higher returns on asset value will improve the asset to liability ratio, but contributions are still insuﬃcient to cover beneﬁt payouts.Second is a management based on stochastic programming. This approach allocates investment in assets with the best return to raise the asset value closer to the level of liabilities. The model is based on work by Kouwenberg in 2001 includes some features from Tanzania pension system. In contrast with most asset liability management models for pension funds by stochastic programming, liabilities are modeled by number of years of life expectancy. Scenario trees are generated by using Monte Carlo simulation. Two models according to different investment guidelines are built. First is using the existing investment guidelines and second is using modiﬁed guidelines which are practical and suitable for modeling. Numerical results suggest that, in order to improve a long-term sustainability of the Tanzania pension fund system, it is necessary to make reforms concerning the contribution rate, investment guidelines and formulate target levels (funding ratios) to characterize the pension funds’ solvency situation. These reforms will improve the sustainability of the system.
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