Global Ocean Futures : Governance of marine fisheries in the Anthropocene

Sammanfattning: This PhD thesis provides an analysis of how an adaptive governance approach can be applied to address existing and emerging challenges in global governance with a focus on marine, wild-capture fisheries. All the papers share a coupled social-ecological framing while providing diverse but complementary perspectives. Paper I provides a lens through which it is possible understand the types of interactions that link social and ecological components of fisheries systems at the global scale. The key result of this paper was the development of a marine social-ecological framework to guide future modelling and scenario analysis. Paper II describes the process of emergence and spread of new ideas in marine governance using Marine Spatial Planning as an illustrative case study. The study shows how governance innovations may contribute to resolving the mismatches between the scale of ecological processes and the scale of governance of ecosystems. A key finding of the paper is the identification and explanation of the mechanisms by which informal networks of actors are able to influence the emergence and spread of new governance forms from the local to the global scale. Paper III focuses on governance of ocean areas beyond national jurisdiction. The key finding from this paper is the urgent need for existing and emerging governance institutions to build capacity for responding to the challenges facing governance of marine fisheries. These challenges arise from unexpected shifts in markets, technology and society. Paper IV develops a set of four imaginative but plausible ‘radical’ futures for global fisheries drawing on trends compiled from a diverse evidence base. The four resulting narratives aim to act as lenses for engaging debate and deeper reflection on how non-linear changes in technology and society might radically shift the operating context and core assumptions of fisheries governance in the future. These papers make a novel contribution to Sustainability Science through their focus on 1) the conditions for, and mechanisms of emergence of diverse and divergent governance forms, 2) the role of agency in complex actor settings, 3) the need for governance institutions to not only deal with, but also be able to anticipate surprise, and 4) the development of scenarios of marine social-ecological futures using a creative and rigorous narrative approach.