A Statistical Approach to Estimate Thermal Performance and Energy Renovation of Multifamily Buildings : Case study on a Swedish city district

Sammanfattning: Several climate and energy goals have been set in the European Union, one of them being to increase energy efficiency. In Sweden, a large potential for increased energy efficiency lies in the residential and service sectors, which account for about 40% of total energy use. A large share of buildings in Sweden were built in the Million Homes Program in the 1960s and ’70s. These buildings are now in need of renovation, which enables renovation with the ambition of reducing energy use. In this thesis, the purpose is to develop an energy signature method, a bottom-up statistical method. This method has been validated using a building energy simulation software called IDA ICE, for two kinds of multifamily buildings from the Million Homes Program. The energy signature method has then been applied to a district located in Gävle, Sweden, containing more than 90 multifamily buildings with similar construction. In addition to characterizing current thermal performance of the buildings, the energy signature method is further developed so that potential for energy renovation of the district can be simulated. Simulated energy renovation is developed to comply with building energy use requirements, according to the most recent Swedish building regulations. Both on building and district level, sensitivity analysis is performed. In both cases the energy signature method is insensitive to changes in internal heat gains and indoor temperature. To investigate the effects of simulated renovation on a local district heating system, results are visualized in a duration diagram, where energy use reduction in different load periods is displayed. Thus, it is demonstrated how the energy signature method can be used as a rapid way of simulating energy renovation on district level and with readily available data.