Impact of dependencies in risk assessments of power distribution systems

Sammanfattning:  Society has become increasingly dependent on electricity, so power system reliability is of crucial importance. However, while underinvestment leads to an unacceptable number of power outages, overinvestment will result in costs that are too high for society. The challenge is to find a socioeconomically adequate level of risk. In this risk assessment, not only the probability of power outages, but also the severity of their consequences should be included.   A risk assessment can be performed from either the perspective of customers or the perspective of the grid owner, depending on whether the consequences faced by customers or the grid owner are considered. Consequences of power outages are usually measured through interruption costs. Examples of interruption costs for the grid owner are customer compensations and loss of goodwill. Examples of interruption costs for customers are retail losses for commercial customers and loss of heating and lighting for residential customers. The aim of this thesis is to develop methods for assessing risks in power distribution systems from the customer-oriented perspective. From this perspective realistic assessments of customer interruption costs are essential.   To perform a customer-oriented risk assessment of a distribution system three different models are required: a customer interruption cost model, a load model and a reliability model. The customer interruption cost model describes the consequences, or costs, of power outages that customers face. The load model predicts the loss of load and the energy not supplied due to power outages. The reliability model describes component failures, which are the root causes of power outages, and the restoration processes that follow. The three models can be used together in a cost-benefit analysis to investigate the consequences for customers due to different investment alternatives.   In this thesis a set of new models is developed that incorporates time dependencies in customer interruption costs, load and component failures. The timing of the outage has an impact on the consequences customers face. Severe weather, which is a main contributor to component failures, is generally more common during certain seasons. These facts imply that there may be a correlation between high customer interruption costs and an increased risk for power outages. In Sweden the frequency of storms is higher during the cold period of the year when the demanded load and customer interruption costs are also high. By taking time dependencies into account, the correlation between high interruption costs and elevated risk for power outages is captured.   Results from the risk assessments of two test distribution systems using the models developed in this thesis show that taking time dependencies into account has a considerable impact on the estimation of customer interruption costs and energy not supplied due to outages. To evaluate the risks of extreme costs, the tools Value-at-Risk and Conditional Value-at-Risk which are commonly used in the finance industry are applied. A conclusion that can be drawn from the simulation results is that taking time dependencies into account is especially important when considering extreme outage events that give rise to extreme costs.