Who is in the driver's seat? : Insights into the mixed outcomes of renewable policy instruments in the electricity industry

Sammanfattning: There is consensus about a need to reduce the amount of green-house gas emission in the electricity industry to be able to deal with the probable consequences of climate change. This necessitates extensive investments in technologies used to generate electricity from renewable energy sources (RES-E). To stimulate such investments, governments have enacted several policy instruments. However, the outcomes of these instruments are mixed. This thesis delineates two reasons for the different effects of policies. First, the development of the renewable electricity industry hinges on a set of driving forces that differ across regions, through the years and for different actors. Given that, policy instruments are not only driving forces behind the renewable electricity industry and can thus by themselves not explain its development.Second, RES-E investors comprise a heterogeneous group of actors whose perceptions of business opportunities vary substantially and are also based on a variety of driving forces. Hence, RES-E investors may react differently to changes within the electricity industry, as well as to government policies that aim to create a more sustainable electricity industry. Garnering a better understanding of these reactions is therefore important as they influence the pace of transition to a more sustainable electricity industry.This is an interdisciplinary study that brings together several theories and research areas. First, using the technological innovation system perspective, it identifies systemic driving forces behind the development of the renewable energy industry that will also accelerate the electricity industry transitions to sustainability. To gain a better insight into the role of policy instruments as such as well as in relation to other driving forces, this thesis explores what factors are accounted for in attempts to assess the instruments’ performance. Second, drawing on sustainability transition studies and dynamic capability theories, this thesis seeks to explore which firms are willing to contribute—and capable of contributing—to sustainability transitions in the electricity industry. The thesis argues that good forecast and policy plans need to be built on a solid understanding of the firms that change the structure of the electricity industry through their RES-E investments.This thesis leverages a mix of qualitative and quantitative methods. Empirical data are collected through two extensive literature reviews on the driving forces of the renewable energy industry development in Europe, a longitudinal case study on a European multinational energy company, and statistical analyses of data on RES-E investors in Sweden. The thesis makes theoretical, methodological, and empirical contributions to this area of research. The findings explain what motivates the development of the renewable energy industry; who competes in the renewable electricity industry; and what the future renewable electricity industry may look like. The thesis outlines implications for policies, for managers as well as for renewable energy technologies.