On optimal hydropower bidding in systems with wind power Modeling the impact of wind power on power markets

Sammanfattning: The introduction of large amounts of wind power into power systems will increase the production uncertainties due to unforeseen wind power production variations. This will have a significant impact on the required balance management quantities. The most suitable power source to balance fast production or consumption variations is hydropower because of its flexibility and low operational costs.This thesis addresses the problem of trading of electricity on the daily marketfrom a hydropower producer perspective in a system with large amounts of wind power. The overall aim is to present models that can be used in the trading decision process. This thesis describes models within three different areas:1. Modeling of the demand for balancing power by using deterministic andstochastic models. The stochastic models are based on stochastic differentialequations.2. Modeling of prices on the day-ahead and real-time markets using deterministic and stochastic models. The stochastic models are based on time series modeling.3. Short-term hydropower scheduling of trading decisions. These problems areformulated as stochastic optimization problems where the market prices arerandom variables.The first two can be used to simulate the impact of wind power on various market prices, while the third simulates how the hydropower producer responds to market prices. Thereby, the thesis presents the necessary models for short-term scheduling of hydropower for a future system with significant amounts of wind power.This thesis concludes that the proposed price models are sufficient to reflect the relevant price properties, and that the proposed short-term hydropower scheduling models can be used to simulate the actions taken by the hydropower producer in a system with significant amounts of wind power. This is also supported by the case studies in the appended publications.