Färdmedelsvalet och valprocessen för lokala resor till regional tågtrafik : en analys med betoning på cykelns betydelse

Sammanfattning: PURPOSE: The dissertation addresses the choice of mode of transport, and the selection process, for local travel to regional rail service, with special emphasis on the significance of the bicycle. APPROACH TO THE PROBLEM AND METHODOLOGY: Choice of mode can be viewed as a 2-stage selection process in which different alternatives are rejected at different points in time. First there is a sorting among modes regarded as feasible alternatives and those deemed infeasible. Then the actual mode is chosen from among those viewed as feasible. I make the following two basic analyses: 1) A dynamic picture of the entire selection process for one mode at a time, 2) A static picture of the choice among various modes. The analyses are based on the subjective set of options (i.e. alternatives deemed feasible by passengers). Further, the dynamic picture also comprises a model for how this subjective set depends on explanatory variables. Objective as well as subjective factors are introduced in a «combined» mode choice model. RESULTS: The process of choosing transport mode for the local link in the regional travel chain is identified to consist of at least the two stages mentioned above. The selection processes are shown to be slightly different for different modes of transport. In addition, the selection process is different regarding the bicycle at the home end and at the away end. The passengers' own perceptions of the possibilities of using different alternatives are shown to govern their choice, rather than the actual objective access to different modes, except indirectly. This perception is affected by various characteristics of the traffic system. The explanatory power of the mode choice model increases if one includes objective as well as subjective factors in a combined model. My studies also show that subjective data can be measured rather easily when making the traveller surveys that anyhow have to be the basis for mode choice models. The results suggest that, generally speaking, objective factors are more influential than subjective ones on the mode choice. Nevertheless, also subjective factors are of decisive importance, and socio-economic and travel-specific factors also play a part. Another interesting result is that the standard of the bus alternative does not only influence bus travelling, but also whether bicycle is considered a feasible alternative or not. A number of conclusions on the consequences for transport planning are also presented in the thesis.