Two strategies for dealing with uncertainty in social-ecological systems

Sammanfattning: The scale of environmental problems is increasing. Globalisation and trade haveweakened the links between the ecosystems in which goods are produced and thecommunities in which they are consumed. This, combined with variability anddynamics in ecological and social systems, means that there are great uncertaintiesabout production conditions and about the impact on humans and theenvironment of decisions made at different levels in society. In order to achievesustainable management of ecosystems, more knowledge is needed when possible.In other cases, strategies for dealing with the uncertainties are needed. This thesis,in which ecological and social systems are regarded as integrated, analyses twostrategies for dealing with uncertainties in such social-ecological systems andthereby improving the potential for sustainable management of these systems.The strategies are i) Using futures studies as a method and ii) creating a tighterfeedback loop between society and ecosystems.Of the five studies included in this thesis, Papers I and II explore possibilities toreduce uncertainties through better feedback between ecosystems and society in aglobalised food system. A tighter feedback loop between society and ecosystemscould increase the potential of society to detect negative environmental impacts ofdifferent activities, respond to such signals (feedback) and make changes thatreduce the negative consequences. Papers III, IV and V develop methods andanalyse the use of futures studies as a tool for managing uncertainty inenvironmental policy processes, specifically the Swedish environmental qualityobjectives. It is difficult and sometimes impossible to predict future developmentsand there are also uncertainties because social-ecological systems are constantlychanging, sometimes in unexpected ways. In addition, the apparently most likelydevelopments may not be the most desirable. Futures studies are used in PapersIII-V to deal with these types of uncertainties. Within the context of these futuresstudies, methods for working together with stakeholders to identify actions andchanges needed to achieve environmental goals are also developed and tested.The results show that the potential exists to reduce certain types of uncertainty byreducing the distance between production and consumption (through localisedfood systems and institutions which transmit feedback). Another conclusion isthat a local food market (farmers’ market), which represents a direct link betweenproduction and consumption, could reduce a sense of uncertainty aboutproduction conditions for individual consumers, through the establishment oftrust in their relationship with the producer. However, only a few examples ofincreased ecological knowledge or increased knowledge about productionconditions were found among these consumers. The results also show that futuresstudies were able to serve as a framework for analysing environmental policyprocesses (the environmental quality objectives), as they provide a long-termperspective and help manage uncertainty by increased knowledge of alternativeactions in relation to several possible developments. Futures studies as ananalytical tool can also help identify partnerships and stakeholders that arenecessary to promote change in order to achieve environmental goals.